Decision
Anton Buchner, Founder, Front Foot Marketing Last updated 8 August 2026
What happens if we're wrong?
The question behind the question
How big is the opportunity?
How expensive would it be to be wrong?
The straight answer
Good marketing decisions weigh downside as well as upside.
Most business cases focus on what happens if the strategy works. Senior decision-makers should also ask what happens if it doesn't.
The deeper answer
How much could we lose? How quickly would we know? Can we reverse the decision? What early signals would tell us it isn't working? Which assumptions create the greatest exposure?
This doesn't mean avoiding risk. It means understanding it.
Some decisions are expensive but reversible. Others are cheap but hard to unwind.
The size of the investment isn't the only thing that matters. The cost of being wrong matters too.
The Customer Value Risk Index gives you a structured read on where that exposure sits.
The uncomfortable bit
The business case that only shows the upside is usually the one that gets approved fastest, and regretted longest.
What we know
- The upside case, usually in reasonable detail
- Roughly how big the investment is
What we don't
- How quickly you'd find out if it wasn't working
- Whether the decision is genuinely reversible, or just theoretically reversible
What we need to decide anyway: Whether the downside is one you can live with, given what you don't yet know.
What I'd challenge
I'd challenge the idea that the size of the opportunity is the number that matters most. The number that matters most is what it costs you if you're wrong.
The Anton Test
If this goes wrong, will we know within weeks, or find out at the annual review?
What I'd do next
I'd work out the smallest, cheapest version of this I could test before committing the full amount, and what early signal would tell me to stop.
The decision
This is ultimately a decision about how much downside you're willing to carry.
This connects to the broader decision on Strategy decisions, if you want the fuller picture.
Keep asking
Related answers
Decision
What are we assuming that we haven't proved?
Every marketing strategy contains assumptions. The danger is forgetting they're assumptions.
Decision
How much evidence is enough?
You rarely get perfect information. The goal isn't certainty. It's confidence good enough to act.
Investment
How much should we invest in marketing?
There isn't a universally correct percentage of revenue to spend on marketing.
Still working out what the real question is?
Sometimes the hardest part isn't finding the answer. It's knowing which question to ask.