Decision
Anton Buchner, Founder, Front Foot Marketing Last updated 8 August 2026
What are we assuming that we haven't proved?
The question behind the question
What does our strategy say?
What is it quietly assuming?
The straight answer
Every marketing strategy contains assumptions. The danger is forgetting they're assumptions.
We assume customers want something. We assume a segment is attractive. We assume a proposition matters. We assume a channel will scale. We assume last year's performance will tell us something about next year's.
The deeper answer
Some assumptions will be right. Some won't.
The important thing is making them visible.
Ask what would have to be true for this strategy to work. Then ask which of those things you actually know. Then ask which of them you could test before committing more money.
Better decisions don't eliminate assumptions. They expose them.
The uncomfortable bit
The riskiest assumption in most plans isn't the one that turns out wrong. It's the one nobody wrote down in the first place.
What we know
- What the strategy says will happen, and the headline numbers behind it
- Which of those numbers came from a test, versus a belief
What we don't
- Which assumptions in the plan have actually been tested
- What would have to be true for the strategy to fail
What we need to decide anyway: Which assumptions to test before committing more money, and which ones you're comfortable carrying as risk.
What I'd challenge
I'd challenge the idea that an assumption is only risky once it turns out to be wrong. It's risky the moment nobody's written it down.
The Anton Test
What would have to be true for this to fail, and have we actually checked whether it already is?
What I'd do next
I'd write the strategy's assumptions down in plain language and put a name against who's meant to know whether each one is true.
The decision
This is ultimately a decision about which assumptions to test before you commit more money.
This connects to the broader decision on Strategy decisions, if you want the fuller picture.
Keep asking
Related answers
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Good marketing decisions consider downside as well as upside.
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You rarely get perfect information. The goal isn't certainty. It's confidence good enough to act.
Investment
Where should we stop spending?
The hardest marketing decision isn't where to invest more. It's what to stop.
Still working out what the real question is?
Sometimes the hardest part isn't finding the answer. It's knowing which question to ask.